Last year, the cost of module production fell by about 30%. This year, the market of photovoltaic industry is optimistic

Recently, listed photovoltaic A-share companies such as Longji Co., Ltd. and Zhonglai Co., Ltd. issued the 2018 annual performance forecast. According to relevant data, even as a "leader", its net profit last year will be significantly lower than that in 2017.

According to the above analysis on the performance of Listed Companies in 2018, the decline of net profit is mainly attributed to "great changes in internal photovoltaic industry policies" or "further adjustment of photovoltaic industry policies by the state", which makes "the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic significantly decline, and the price of photovoltaic products substantially fall", although the original intention of policy adjustment is "gradually promoting the parity of photovoltaic industry" "Access to the Internet", but "the adjustment of policies has intensified the market competition of photovoltaic industry in the short term, and the overall profit level of the industry has declined".



At the same time, a group of data released by Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in his speech at the seminar on review of development in 2018 and Prospect of situation in 2019 held by China Photovoltaic Industry Association, also seemed to reflect some changes in China's photovoltaic industry in 2018.



According to data released by Wang Bohua, China's new installed capacity in 2018 exceeded 43gw, down 18% year on year. In addition to the sharp decrease in installed capacity, the output of products in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain has also been "significantly higher in the first half of the year than in the second half of the year". For example, the output of polysilicon in China last year exceeded 250000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of more than 3.3%, but the output in the first half of the year was 143000 tons, with an increase of about 24%, that is, the output in the second half of the year was only 107000 tons.



The emergence of this situation is believed to be mainly caused by the notice on matters related to photovoltaic power generation in 2018 (also known as "531 policy") jointly issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration on May 31, 2018. But from another point of view, "531 policy" also laid a good foundation for the future development of photovoltaic industry. For example, according to Wang Bohua, the production cost of modules in a photovoltaic enterprise has been reduced from 74 cents / W in 2012 to 21 cents / W in 2018, among which, compared with 30 cents / W in 2017, the decline in 2018 reached 30%.



Domestic market space this year



Probably better than expected



In addition to the above, Wang Bohua introduced that in China's newly added 43gw photovoltaic installation in 2018, the centralized PV installation was about 23gw, down 31% year-on-year, and the distributed PV installation was about 20GW, up 5% year-on-year. As a result, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in China also exceeded 170gw by the end of 2018.



That is to say, now the cumulative installed capacity of China is far beyond the end of 2016. According to the 13th five year plan for solar energy development issued by the national energy administration, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is required to reach the development goal of 105gw by 2020.



Because of this, Wang Bohua believes that in 2019, the Chinese market should control the pace. "But there is no problem for China to maintain a large market. From the perspective of China's development history, it has been developing at a super level."



This view has also been widely recognized in the industry, "it should be said that in recent years, the rapid development of photovoltaic industry technology in China has led to a significant reduction in cost, making photovoltaic application scenarios more extensive, breaking through the relatively conservative expectations of the planning." "In the future, the government, enterprises, scientific research institutions and other relevant parties will continue to improve policies, improve transformation efficiency, promote cost reduction, and promote fair access to the Internet. The photovoltaic industry that does not need financial subsidies will realize" weaning ", and the market-oriented development opportunities will continue to promote the scale of photovoltaic applications."



In fact, on January 9 this year, the relevant ministries and commissions issued the notice of the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on actively promoting the work of non subsidized parity access to the Internet for wind power and photovoltaic power generation, which clearly supports the construction of low-cost and low-cost photovoltaic projects outside the subsidized scale.



In this regard, Ding Wenlei, chairman of Shandong Hangyu Energy Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily that "due to the fact that the fair price online projects and low price online projects are not limited by the annual construction scale, at the same time, the notice also requires that the wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects that have not been started and completed within the prescribed time limit be cleaned up and abolished in a timely manner, thus, the future peace will emerge Price online projects and low price online projects will become the real market incremental space. "



Management, power grid



Pave the way for photovoltaic development



In addition to China, Wang Bohua is also optimistic about the prospects of the global photovoltaic market in 2019. "More than 100 countries around the world have turned (renewable energy) development into a goal; on the other hand, multinational companies tend to have the most sensitive sense of smell. Almost all of them have set renewable energy use goals, and some of them have been achieved," he said



According to the prediction of some analysis institutions, the international market will blossom everywhere in 2019, and the GW level market will reach more than 15 from 7 countries in 2016.



According to Wang Bohua, "the main global photovoltaic markets are China, Japan, India and the United States, and China will maintain a stable level with slight changes; the European market will be the old tree sprouting in the future, and the EU market is expected to grow significantly faster in 2019 than in the past, which is expected to reach more than 11gw;"; Emerging markets are also rising rapidly. Due to the continuous rise of electricity price and the worry of insufficient power supply, large-scale ground photovoltaic in Australia will be anti ultra household photovoltaic in 2018, which is expected to remain above 4gw in 2019, including Mexico and Turkey.



Under the pressure of "531 policy", Chinese photovoltaic enterprises pay more attention to the global layout than ever before, especially in 2018 to accelerate the expansion of overseas markets. According to CPIA,